Policy & Markets Analysis

Economics During War

How has United States foreign policy — trade wars, military interventions, and an aggressive unilateral posture — affected America's position as a global economic anchor? Tracking the financial signals that reveal shifts in confidence, leverage, and systemic risk since January 20, 2025.

Covering Jan 20, 2025 – Present
Sources ECB via Frankfurter · Federal Reserve H.4.1
Updated

Exchange Rates vs. USD

Top 5 Most Traded Currencies · Daily

Currency markets are among the first to price in geopolitical risk. These five pairs represent the vast majority of global forex volume. All rates indexed to 100 at inauguration. A rising line means the foreign currency strengthened relative to the dollar.

USD Exchange Rates — Indexed to Jan 20, 2025

European Central Bank
via Frankfurter API · daily
FX data not yet available

Foreign Custody of U.S. Treasuries

Fed H.4.1 Release · Weekly

The Federal Reserve holds trillions in Treasury securities in custody for foreign governments and central banks. Changes in these holdings are a direct signal of foreign sovereign confidence — or retreat — from U.S. government debt.

Fed Custody Holdings — Marketable U.S. Treasuries

Federal Reserve Board · H.4.1
FRED WMTSECL1 · weekly
Treasury data not yet available

Timeline & Editorial Notes

Key Events & Shocks

Major policy actions, market shocks, and geopolitical events annotated against the data above.

No annotations yet.